This page updates after every slate. Wins, losses, pushes, and retractions, with closing line value on every entry.
Two honest notes before you read this. First, short samples prove nothing in either direction, which is why we publish a confidence interval next to our CLV. Second, the number that matters most here is CLV, not the record. Beating the closing line consistently is the only statistical fingerprint of skill. Records are what variance does while you wait.
| Date | Signal | Tier | Entry | Close | CLV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25 | OKC −9.5 | A | −9.5 | −11 | +3.4% | Win |
| Apr 25 | CLE Under 7.5 | A | 7.5 | 7.0 | +4.1% | Win |
| Apr 24 | ATL +1.5 | B | +1.5 | +1.0 | +2.2% | Loss |
| Apr 24 | HOU Under 141.5 | B | 141.5 | 141.5 | +0.0% | Push |
| Apr 23 | NYY −1.5 | A | −1.5 | −1.5 | +1.8% | Win |
| Apr 23 | BOS Over 8.5 | B | 8.5 | 9.0 | −1.1% | Loss |
| Apr 22 | DEN −3.5 | A | −3.5 | −4.5 | +3.9% | Win |
| Apr 22 | LAD −1.5 | B | −1.5 | −2.0 | +2.6% | Win |
| Apr 21 | MIA Over 213.5 | B | 213.5 | 213.0 | −0.7% | Loss |
| Apr 21 | SEA Under 7.0 | A | 7.0 | 6.5 | +4.3% | Win |
Signals our gate pulled after publication, with the reason. We list these because a track record with no retractions is a track record you should not trust.
| Date | Signal | Reason for retraction | Window |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18 | PHI −2.5 | Starter scratched after publication. Lineup gate failed on re check. | 14 min |
| Apr 11 | TOR Over 9.0 | Stale weather feed. Wind reversed the total read once corrected. | 22 min |
| Mar 29 | MIL −5.5 | Bullpen availability changed. Conviction no longer cleared the gate. | 9 min |
Anyone can celebrate a winner. The honest test is what you do after a loss. Every losing signal gets a public post-mortem: what happened, what we got right, what we underweighted, and the lesson, which becomes a free Daily Hoot.
The reframe: we lost the game and still beat the close (+2.2%). Right process, wrong night. That gap is the thing one result can never tell you and a season of CLV always does.
What happened: Atlanta lost outright by 4. The hook never mattered; the game slipped away in the final three minutes.
What we got right: the pace and rest reads held — this was a one-possession game into the fourth, exactly the range we modeled.
What we underweighted: Atlanta's half-court offense with Young short of full speed. Late-clock possessions stalled, and the cover went with them.
A spread built on pace assumes both offenses still execute late. When one can't, the number lies.
A reliability curve compares the conviction we stated against what actually happened. The closer our line sits to the diagonal, the more honest our probabilities are. Almost nobody in this category will show you this chart.
Across 312 graded signals, our stated conviction and real-world hit rate track almost perfectly. This is the difference between a model with genuine skill and a tout with a hot streak.
Owl & Odds is an analytics and entertainment product, not betting advice. We never accept wagers. Must be 19+ in Ontario or of legal age in your jurisdiction. Past signal performance does not guarantee future results. Sample sizes shown are small and not predictive on their own. If gambling stops being entertainment, help is available: ConnexOntario 1 866 531 2600. Owl & Odds operates to iGaming Ontario / AGCO standards.